Valuing ARU, page-3

Its a good question.

A few points I would make:
- Lots of institutions can't invest until FID is achieved. So that should see lots of long term capital buy in post FID. And they will take a medium to long term view (so i think they would value ARU at about $1.50).
- Typcially upon FID the SP goes up...and then fades down during construction and can drop significantly if there are cost overruns/commisioning issues etc. But we have pretty substantial Cost Overrun Facilities. So I think this negates the cost overrun risk (unless it is a massive blow out).
- I think NdPr prices and other tailwinds will also help ARU SP over the construction period. ie NdPr prices will go up (at least the ex China prices will go up).
- During construction I expect ARU to get permits for Stage 2. Also expect ARU to sign agreements to process other companies materials.

So i thinkg the SP might do the following:
- Post Off-take/Debt annoucements (so around July 2024) - SP will go up to about $0.40 - $0.50 - I think it would normally go up higher ($0.70), but there are some games being played by some big funds (look at the manipulated cap and collar each day, the price push down on close plus all the other tricks). I am guessing they want to exit short positions and go long using the cap raise as their exit. Could also be a whale trying to accumulate.
- ARU may then raise at around this SP ($0.45). So no change in SP till after equity raise. So SP will remain at $0.45 till about Sept 2024.
- Then post FID....i think it will steadily climb up to $1.50 as institutions and others see the risk lowered. So around Jan/Feb 2025 it should be well over $1.00.

Then as i mention above, during construction, with additional revenue streams identified, it could then go even higher.

What do other think?

PS. I have been researching if ARU can do a capital raise at a SP above its current SP. So by that I mean do a raise at say $0.60. I think they can do that for the instiutional part. But if they want to do via a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) then has to be at current SP or a discount. So there could be a chance that there is no retail component to the equity raise. Buy your shares now! But i would be keen if someone more knowledgeable could let us know if that is a possibility?