I?m beginning to warm to the SFR story. SFR has a few advantages over Citadel, including:
The ore is higher grade and shallower (lower capital and operating costs)
The site has only been drilled to a shallow depth so there is a good prospect for exploration upside. Citadel has been subject to a more comprehensive drilling programme.
With the LS-Nikko deal collapsed (IMO this does not boad well for SFR management as it appears they reacted to the OZL stake and did not know the value of the company), OZL only need to get Sin Steel (may have the wrong name here) on board to launch a 'hostile' takeover.
An SFR acquisition would give OZL an additional 70 tpa of CU production (a > 60% increase in current PH production) in 2 years. With exploration success, the plant could be upgraded or mine life extended beyond the current 7 year estimate. So I think SFR would be a good investment at the right price (not sure what this would be, but as HT pointed out, Citadel valued at 1.2B makes SFR currnet MCap look good value).
In the recent announcement re convertible bonds, the last sentence ?The OZ Minerals Board continues to assess capital management opportunities including possible future debt facilities? was interesting. An company with 1.4B in cash would only be seeking debt facilities for one reason.
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