Ann: Grant of Jericho Mining Lease, page-53

  1. 149 Posts.
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    I really wouldn't worry about where the SP ends up on any particular day for the next 4 - 6 weeks. There are only 4 things to be monitoring, and this is not the SP in this period;

    1) Results from the 6 Swagman drill results in less than 4 weeks time. AC himself has himself says these could be 'company defining'. We've already had 9 & 4m hits at 2% and 2.8% Copper respectively here. Recent drilling has been up to 600m up strike from these. 3 or 4 decent hits out of 6 will have AC talking about 25 - 30,000t of copper and a bigger plant.

    2) July quarterly, Ash another competition? Hard to gage really as does the left over ore from last quarter count? (for the wager as per last quarter). If it does then i'm going for 4,000t. If its already somehow included or simply reported in the sales then i will go for 3,600. (3,000 - 3,200 forecast).

    3) And cash balance in the quarterly. Previously i thought $40m was about right, up from $26m last quarter. Clearly this depends on receivables and sales/any other events or hold backs. But a growing balance like this would give us all sorts of options especially as the pile would likely be $55m + by September. $70m by January....who needs debt funding, well less than we did!

    4) Not necessarily in the next 4 - 6 weeks, more likely next 6 months....Historically AC has said all our assets are 'always for sale, and we are always looking to buy'. Last 12 months he has talked about our 'cornerstone' asset at Eloise/Jericho. So perhaps he's happy to hold? But looking back the past 3 years and his previous tenure at EVN he has pretty much been involved in an acquisition EVERY 12 months. We are now in an 'outlier' time horizon re M&A. We are overdue an acquisition and its pretty clear we are now not a seller. The rising SP and rising copper price (and $ in the bank) gives us way more leverage to buy something. There are a myriad of options within 50km of Eloise. we all probably know the names. But at what price, and what purchase would add value? There are certainly plenty of 'stranded' assets out there close by with copper in the ground and no plant, low market cap or privately held, or indeed with the administrators. A SP closer to $1 - 1.20 would give us a market cap of $500m. A purchase of $100 - 150m would dilute 20 - 25% whereas 4 - 6 months ago it would have been 70 - 110% dilution.

    Lets not ignore the obvious, AC wants the SP strong to give him greater leverage and optionality re acquisitions. This whilst improving our 'cornerstone' asset. The fact that there has been VERY little discussion or mention of acquisitions from AC, or anyone anywhere, tells me that right now it is actually quite probably very front and center and quite possibly not far away.
 
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