These are useful calcs so thanks for putting them out there and, yes, at lower margins, the 6% commission to Eddie begins to hurt.
I did some calcs a while back which, when I update with current coal prices, leads me to expect operations only to be cash flow neutral this calendar year if we can sell 200,000 tonnes of coal which is increasingly looking doable so I have seen recent updates as positive. All I am looking for right now is that we have the funds to keep developing the project. If so, then I can see some value in the share price. It has certainly been frustrating for us all that delays in reaching the targeted production has been pushed out. The reality today however is that this is a development company still ramping up which will mean lower margins.
The margins will improve though as the project matures. But at what rate? For the projections, the things I would really like to get a better handle on is:
- the timing of the road upgrades and how this will progressively improve the production volumes. For example, do we need all the upgrades completed before we can increase the size of the trucking loads or are the steeper sections being addressed first which will allow an increase on current load capacities?
- TBAR progress - just how long will it realistically take to get the approval and then get it up and running as it seems there is huge leverage there from the BBM infrastructure.
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