SYA sayona mining limited

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Q4 Earning Discussion Area, page-26

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lesv

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23/05/24

07:03

Post #: 73965634
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Originally posted by SplitFusion: ↑

Next topic to tackle for the quarterly is shipments.

Discussion points
At the end of March there were 2040 tons so product stockpile at the port.
Guidance in the PLL quarterlies was helpful in determining what PLL shipments would be because we know they shipped 15,500 in Q1 and there guidance is for 37,000 to 39,000 tones in H1 2024. This means they are looking to ship between 22,000 and 24,000 tones in their (PLL's) Q2 which is our (Sayona's) Q4.
Sea born shipments seem to be sized at around 14,000 tons per shipment, this is likely due to the fact that anything heavier / larger vessel would not be able to pass via the Panama Canal so we adopted this number for seaborn shipments.
PLL shipped to Tesla in Q2 and that shipment was delivered by rail, so we believe Tesla shipments can be larger than 14,000 tons per shipment
Using our Guidance from the previous discussion on production we assumed with the existing stockpile plus new production during the quarter we have somewhere between 48,000 and 54,000 tons available to ship.
If we assume 24,000 of that goes by train to Tesla, then we have between 24,000 and 30,000 tones additional that could be shipped.
Since we believe the remaining shipments must go in 14,000 ton loads we could have 1 or 2 shipments, but it would really be pushing up against the end of the quarter to get a 2nd 14,000 shipment to the port and loaded before the end of the quarter.
Ultimately we decided on one 24,000 ton shipment to go to Tesla in May, and one 14,000 ton shipment to go to the spot market in early June.
This would leave the opportunity to ship 2 loads in July at the start of a new fiscal year.
It is definitely not our of reach for another shipment especially if production turns out better than we predicted. I don't think anyone would be upset with surprise to the upside. We also believe since March of this year the water levels of the Panama Canal have improved which could allow larger shipments than 14,000, again a nice surprise to the upside won't hurt my feelings at all.

In our group we project shipments of 38,000 tons for the quarter.

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i have also seen previously companies knowing a quarter will be bad bring some of there costs forward to help make the following quarter look a lot better especially ahead of appointing new ceo’s , touted as bringing out all the dirty laundry so a new ceo has a clean runway to get on with the job and has minimal baggage to deal with , just a though i have had in the back of the mine , do you see any evidence of this or am i speculating too much
SYA Price at posting: 4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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