General discussion inc SP movement, page-293

Heya Opex

There is a saying that TA is a self fulfilling prophesy, there's the clue and one I completely subscribe to.

All traders even the large investment houses use technical analysis to determine entry and exit levels and possibilities. Some also use it for probability.

If you understand where the trades are then you have your entry exit and risk prevention information - risk prevention could be stop losses, trailing/following buy or exits.

Meme stock, crypto TBH is very difficult for me because you are trying to grasp sentiment at speed - this is my thoughts, others will disagree. Sentiment just blows in the wind however it does show in the charts. Recently with crypto ETFs, trading crypto has become harder due larger organisations using trading software, AI et al. Humans cannot match the speed they can as you picked up. I only paper trade crypto but wouldn't put real money on it. I use this as a real time practice for my craft. All of the known techniques work including simple ones like trends, volume, FIBS etc etc. As I said above, there's your clue.

The sentiment aspect is the hard one because it doesn't follow much external. Human behavior is unpredictable (IMHO). The individuals that I've met that are heavily invested in this area believe in .. can't think of great words here .. conspiracies, anti government control and decentralization.

But I also know people that trade it and make somewhat of a living. TA is really intended to look at price and sales activity. From memory, the bar chart which we commonly used was invented by the Japanese to chart rice sales (https://education.*****.com/trading/history-japanese-technical-analysis). They used them to understand trends - just as we do today.

A traders job is to find trends and decide what action should be taken. Remember that most traders are also using a system which is why TA becomes self fulfilling - they all respond similarly - you might have heard of stop loss hunting? there's an example of the games I talk about. It works with rice, crypto, memes and yes even copper. But you are absolutely correct, crypto is traded 24/7 and a lot is automated by traders and brokers and it is much harder to manually understand due to the speed it works at.

As for red flag - see above. It's all in the trends and handled through risk management (stop losses etc)

I'll warn you that all chartists have their own understanding, preconceptions, methodologies and limitations. We don't always get it right but in common, we generally aim for a higher percentage win that loss. At the bare minimum, I think investors could benefit from a basic understanding of a trend line and able to read something from volume activity, this just gives us a reasonable chance at buying towards the bottom of a trend as opposed the top. You don't need to go all complex with Bollingers or some other indicators. RSI and EMA are worth grasping. EMA (valuable to me) really is just a trend line but it is following historical movement on a relative time frame whereas a trend line is simply drawn between tops, middle or bottoms. One observation I challenge anyone to do is disprove that price always returns to the 43 EMA in time.

Hope this helps