It would depend what the large shareholders say - though even Orbis and Walker would only give Eli Lily 25%, and they're starting from less than 5% - but a 40% premium wouldn't be outlandish http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/national/7991571/rsm-bird-cameron-says-takeover-premiums-can-vary/ So $4 a share is certainly plausible.
I'd estimate the chances of a takeover in the next year at 50%, though. (And I'd probably prefer to hang on and see the full long-term value of Acrux' technology developed.)
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