NEU neuren pharmaceuticals limited

0.80%

$12.54

Ann: Phase 2 trial shows significant improvements in Pitt Hopkins, page-83

First 83 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
reggie78

2,170 Posts.

572

27/05/24

14:35

Post #: 74026924
Share

Originally posted by baldwidx: ↑

I found it particularly interesting to hear JP reference Reata and also Soleno during the session.

I was/am under the impression that as a treatment for Friedreich’s Ataxia, Skyclaris (Reata) has a similar profile to Trofinetide (Acadia/Neuren) in the treatment of Retts syndrome in terms of patient populations and drug pricing (to a lesser degree from memory). For the purposes of comparison, I will equate them as equal and a good valuation guide.

In most Neuren presentations, 2591 in the 4 indications we are trialling is valued at approximately 5 times that of Retts. When you consider that Reata was sold for $7.2B USD, it shows what considerable potential we have for the indications we are trailing. I know the goalposts have somewhat shifted on PWS but I still think they intend to trial 2591 in it once they revise the protocol. I know that Pharma M&A does not work like this but 5 x $7.2b USD gives us a very, very healthy valuation ($36B USD / $54B AUD). With circa 130m shares on issue gives us an SP of $410. If nothing else, it does give a clear line of sight of just some of the value of 2591.

The truly remarkable thing to consider are the "platform indications" that JP referenced much more explicitly today. He has mentioned up to 100 indications previously and while I don't think we will be rewarded for each and every one individually in the event of a TO, if you have mouse models that back up your claim, you could comfortably argue that a premium, based on even just 5 additional indications (leaving 95% on the table for big pharma) is more than fair, given the safety and efficacy profile.

Such valuation would see the valuation more than double and that does not include any additional revenue in Fragile X or ongoing revenue for Daybue etc.

I stand by my view that $15B USD is a fair TO valuation right now . Anything less and we are giving it away.

Notwithstanding SP action today, I can see a scenario where $22B USD is the sweet spot and makes all parties happy especially considering the Soleno/Reata valuations for single indications.

Expand

Agreed.

The irony of JP referencing Retas/skyclavs recent deal is because that is what the industry is paying!

$15-22bn US I think will get the deal done but it does seem cheap by comparison….. perhaps JP and team are in fact chasing $36bn US/$54bn Aud hence the reference.

No doubt the value is compounding.

NEU Price at posting: $22.77 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
36 Upvote

2 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

ASX Market Open: Stocks slide as Trump tosses up attacking Iran directly | June 20

AL3

AML3D opens new facility in Ohio as US Defence strategy bears fruit

Thursday's HotCopper trends: Second Amplia response, Race combo dosing | June 19

NVO

Novo flags antimony and gold in the Pilbara – but does it need to step back?

Week 25 Wrap: Fed & BoE pause rates ahead of RBA; Santos-ADNOC, Oz tax reforms

PIQ

Proteomics notches up as company launches PromarkerD into the US

Friday’s HotCopper trends: Dreadnoughts's drill delight, Galan's beaut raise | June 19

PV1

Hydrogen tanker stock Provaris inks MOU with "K" LINE to provide advice

HotCopper Highlights for Week 25: 4DS Memory, Meeka & Sprott-citement

First 83 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last $12.54		Change 0.100(0.80%)		Mkt cap ! $1.559B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$12.44	$12.73	$12.13	$11.07M	885.6K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1215	$12.52

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$12.54	804	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	400	12.480
1	796	12.300
1	400	12.240
1	3000	12.230
1	761	12.210

Price($)	Vol.	No.
12.600	1020	1
12.710	628	2
12.720	1982	1
12.820	3050	1
12.900	5012	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 20/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

NEU (ASX) Chart

Ann: Phase 2 trial shows significant improvements in Pitt Hopkins, page-83

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

ASX Market Open: Stocks slide as Trump tosses up attacking Iran directly | June 20

AML3D opens new facility in Ohio as US Defence strategy bears fruit

Thursday's HotCopper trends: Second Amplia response, Race combo dosing | June 19

Novo flags antimony and gold in the Pilbara – but does it need to step back?

Week 25 Wrap: Fed & BoE pause rates ahead of RBA; Santos-ADNOC, Oz tax reforms

Proteomics notches up as company launches PromarkerD into the US

Friday’s HotCopper trends: Dreadnoughts's drill delight, Galan's beaut raise | June 19

Hydrogen tanker stock Provaris inks MOU with "K" LINE to provide advice

HotCopper Highlights for Week 25: 4DS Memory, Meeka & Sprott-citement

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Phase 2 trial shows significant improvements in Pitt Hopkins, page-83

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 014 – Abu Dhabi wants to buy our 'true' oil and gas gem

ASX Market Open: Stocks slide as Trump tosses up attacking Iran directly | June 20

AML3D opens new facility in Ohio as US Defence strategy bears fruit

Thursday's HotCopper trends: Second Amplia response, Race combo dosing | June 19

Novo flags antimony and gold in the Pilbara – but does it need to step back?

Week 25 Wrap: Fed & BoE pause rates ahead of RBA; Santos-ADNOC, Oz tax reforms

Proteomics notches up as company launches PromarkerD into the US

Friday’s HotCopper trends: Dreadnoughts's drill delight, Galan's beaut raise | June 19

Hydrogen tanker stock Provaris inks MOU with "K" LINE to provide advice

HotCopper Highlights for Week 25: 4DS Memory, Meeka & Sprott-citement

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News