Was going to ask you for your thoughts around valuation - have always appreciated your views.
I know people will laugh but if you take JP at his word, then you could mount a very credible and easily justified argument that $36B USD seems like a bargain - relative to what is left on the table for BP.
I know this is not how Pharma valuation works but I am a simple person, so I use simple maths. If you rudimentarily divide $36B USD by 4 to provide a rough value for each of the 4 indications, you would come to the conclusion that each indication is worth $9b in the event of a TO, all things being equal and applying the same reasoning outlined above in terms of 2591 valuation, relative to Freidrich Ataxia/Retts.
Given that it doesn't work like that and some indications are more prevalent and/or complicated and/or valuable etc etc, you could swing the axe and halve the valuation, to give you a good base figure/valuation of $4.5B USD per indication that is conservative and leaves room for plenty of upside.
If JP is right and there are 100 other conditions that could be treated, using the same valuation model described above, you would would get to $450B USD in terms of platform valuation and even if you were conservative again, for the sake of leaving upside, you could argue that only 25 indications are "goers", which would leave you with a valuation of $112.5B USD for the 2591 platform (not taking into consideration the current 4 indications, FX and Daybue revenue).
Going further, even if you said that Neuren only deserved a 5% cut of that platform/pipeline potential, you would still be left with circa $5.5B USD in additional value attributed to Neuren in the event of a TO, in addition to the $15B - $22B USD that we would argue for, leaving aside the actual valuation for the 4 indications being much higher.
I accept that this is not how M&A is done, but when you discount Neuren's TO value by 50%, then discount that remaining value by 75% and then apply a further 95% discount to the valuation and still, without even breaking a sweat, mount a credible argument that we are worth absolute bare minimum $20B - $27B USD, it goes to show how crazy it is that people are willing to accept a $50 TO, valuing us at circa $4.5B USD.
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