"How would MNB be able to raise at that price, exactly?"
Firstly I’ll say from the outset I have no knowledge of what their plans are other than Lindsay’s comments in the crux interview. In that interview he mentioned both bank finance and strategic investment.
It is not uncommon for companies to have a strategic investor take equity at a premium to the current price. We had an oversubscribed placement at 7c - oversubscribed means we knocked back investors wanting to partake. And that was before the IDC approval came through. So the way I see it if a strategic investor wanted to say take a 15% holding in Minbos, they are not going to accept 7 cents. The reason we dropped from the mid 9 cent range to the present was a badly handled Placement. I doubt (hopefully) they’ll make that mistake again. Even the mid 9s was a beaten down price because of the delays. Such an investor would also know as soon as we are fully financed, construction will start and the Share Price would go back to, and IMO above previous levels. So they wouldn’t have to wait long to show a profit.
IMO the Directors would only entertain a strategic investment if it was going to be beneficial to shareholders, also it would probably be subject to a vote, I doubt anything would get voted up at current prices. IMO if someone wants a piece of Minbos they’ll need to pay, otherwise we’ll just wait for the bank finance.
Also equity investment can take many other forms. For example a strategic investor might pay Minbos a sum of money to take a stake in the GA project. For example pay $xx m for a 20% stake partnership thereafter both partners contributing to capex etc on a 80/20 basis
Edit just watched the latest interview linked above.
Interesting he has already given an excuse re the July deadline, saying with the planned doubling of capacity, they could still supply customers by next season even with a delay.
He mentions London interest in the GA project but nothing about direct equity investment for the phosphate project.However he is very positive on the banks, so maybe my take on the previous crux interview (above) regarding equity investment is wrong - possibly an option with a preference to bank finance?
Also Carrinho seem to be upping their purchase requirements. The DFS had year 1 at 10kt (possibly just part of yr 1), year 2 at 92kt, the latest figures showed 153kt for year 1 and now they’re talking beyond that!
