Claims of 10X should always be considered alongside the possibility of 0.1X if the reason for the 10X does not happen. Otherwise you have to explain why it isn't already 10X, obviously there would be some discount for taking the risk but that's offset by the loss being uncompensated if it eventuates unless you hold a portfolio of similarly discounted assets where enough of them don't fail in order to always get the risk premium. That is the argument for investors to buy an index if they are not either trying to gamble or they are not willing to do more work than the experts in the market at identifying where the market has mispriced an asset which is an easy thing to mistakenly think you are able to do after a few lucky bets.
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