USL 0.00% 19.0¢ unico silver limited

Ann: Acquisition of Sierra Blanca project, page-13

  1. 9,029 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3879
    This is all spit balling. I am not a mining expert of any sort. Just an investor. So take numbers with a grain of salt.

    First objective is still to drill this out. We currently have 92Moz AgEq (Eq part is kind of important later on). We have an exploration target on our existing tenements at the midpoint of another 92Moz AgEq at a little over 200g/t.

    That does not include the Sierra Blanca acquisition. Given it now makes up approx 1/3rd of the vein field and as @Wack has pointed out could be more geared to pure Au/Ag and higher grade we can say over time this could have an exploration target of another 50Moz AgEq+.

    Obviously exploration targets are theoretical - no guarantees in exploration but there are geology factors stacked in our favour.

    But let's be optimistic. Goal is 200-250Moz AqEq at close to 200g/t.

    So this is your first valuation method. When silver was still ~A$35 average valuation was circa $1.70/oz (ala around 5%). So if you use A$50 @ 5% (A$2.50) and 200Moz that gives us an A$500m valuation.

    Second way to value it is a possible development scenario. Based on 200Moz at 200g/t. That is about 35Mt deposit. Ore reserve might be say 120Moz or 20Mt.

    You would probably build a 2Mt plant for that size reserve. Assuming mostly OP mining capex might be $200-250m

    Polymet deposit including base metals so happy with your 80% recovery target. Overall payability might be 90% as you have to pay treatment charges on con. So let's factor that and call it 70% overall.

    2Mt at 200g/t at 80% recoveries is approx 10Mozpa production. At 90% payability modify that to 9Mozpa

    Most people understand gold more so I am going to look at this in a sort of roundabout way. At the moment the gold/silver ratio is 73. So 9Moz production is equivalent to 123koz gold production. This is a fairly typical sort of junior development size play.

    Based on that size plant, production profile, estimated opex etc, 10 year mine life, estimated opex etc. that probably gives a post tax NPV of A$700-800m. But you wouldn't get a takeover at 100% of NPV.

    So that $500m mark is probably the number.

    Now, two sides to that coin. 1st is that is based on us a bit over 2x our resource base. Gonna cost money to drill and will be a CR or two to get there.

    Other side of the coin is that is based on current spot price. We are all (I assume) here cost we think silver goes higher. As silver moves higher so does valuation. This should offset or more the increase in share count from CR's.

    As I said spitballing but those are my thoughts.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add USL (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
19.0¢
Change
0.000(0.00%)
Mkt cap ! $56.81M
Open High Low Value Volume
19.5¢ 19.5¢ 18.5¢ $74.88K 395.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 72156 18.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
21.0¢ 80000 2
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
USL (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.