CNB 0.98% 51.5¢ carnaby resources limited

Ann: Scoping Study Results Greater Duchess Project, page-31

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    For those with an open mind wondering why market reacted to this SS the way it did

    a) This is a scoping study and by nature based on generous "technical" assumptions which will be proved up in further expert studies that will follow

    b) NPV (7%) under $300M - Stock already trading 50% of that [with feasibility study pending, funding needed, construction & commissioning risks still ahead]. Run the NPV @8% and put risk weightings on all outstanding risks and CNB will start looking fully valued (sans exploration upside)

    c) Downstream :- Economics are contingent on successful negotiations with Glencore. There are 2 issues here a) Glencore's commitment to Mount Isa is on weak footing, b) If they will play ball - it will be on their terms as they wont mind packing up and leaving Mt Isa - They have bigger fish to fry.

    d) Operating risk: This project economics look good if commodities outlook remain strong but not robust enough to sustain a commodities downcycle.
 
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