Weekly Review Li Stocks - 31st May 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future.Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks.The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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.This week I don't have anything in my Personal section (holdings, price etc) as I have been shuffling some stocks for June tax transactions. Hopefully back next week.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 had a small hiccup this week, but rebounded well. So the higher path is still open. No new high this week though. Finished down 0.5% from last 5303 to close at 5277 on Friday. Finished on a positive note. Many analysts/financial institution are saying June may see a drop here, they have got it wrong before, but its best to have an open mind. SP 500 has had a stellar rise from 3500 level, so at some stage a correction is due. Whether its now is to be seen. Also June is traditionally a weak period for SP 500 - many following the theory - sell in May and go away.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 12.92, a big gain from 11.93 of last week, - continues to stay in strong bull territory, but signs of initial cracks
- Bitcoin after making 70k last week, in consolidation phase, but still looking very strong - around 67k now, last week 68k - so nearly same place
- Sentiment Indicator - still at Neutral at 48, last week Neutral 53 - so again a divergence is there, again a lot of punters not believing that this rally will go much further ahead, or thinking a correction may be in play, or not happy that Commodities/Resource sector not part of this rally, but lets see, its just an indicator, has been wrong before
- Russell 2000 was flat for the week, currently at 2070, last week at 2069, lagging other indicators strongly,
- Yields some good drop after inflation numbers, but still high enough, not indicating rate cuts coming soon
- Dollar Index is again on the rise, another divergence says market needs to cool
- Gold, Silver and Oil . all took hit this week
- Last week I wrote- overall one can be optimistic this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. I feel the same this week
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 is still in strong territory. Many believe we may see a correction in June. Its upon us next week. So could be topsy-turvy week, maybe higher volatility
- Russell 2000 is key for us, commodity/resource, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years now
- Key economic data this week around - No strong economic data this week, jobs, PMI etc - I have a feeling technicals will drive more than numbers this week
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium stocks still doing all right, the bullish trend is on, a brief pause which started last week, continued into this week. U sector has a great run, so in that context this pause, or I would say hesitancy, is neither unusual, nor unhealthy. But I have a theory which I have been writing for several weeks now, when CCJ started coming back from 39. I said CCJ will make a new high between 55 and 60, before we see a correction. On Friday, CCJ reached 56.24, finished at 55.51. So great run, no signs of slowing down. But it is also now in my territory that a short term top may happen. So I will be cautious and look for signs. But as I always, its best not to assume anything but follow price action. So last 2 weeks was a test whether we will continue this rally. I don't think we got a decisive answer, so we will have to wait, possibly this week. Reason, ASX U stocks are already now in hesitant phase. Thaey are not panicking, but exuberance is missing. Many big stocks which were making 52 week highs last several weeks, most are now down average 10% from their recent highs. Not big, but something to ponder. his is for those who do short-term trades, like me. Longs may still feel a hold and play is very good, and it well may be. So overall I would say, a caution phase, look for clues, especially around downside, because 15 to 20% drops can happen and with June tax transactions coming up, next rally could be September. U Spot price also dropped for the week. Last week at 91.95. This week 89.90. So not much, but has lost a psychological number of 90. So lets see.
- Lithium Sector overview - Lithium sector is back in the weakness zone, based on the reading I use, others may disagree. ALB lost 4% for the week. I use 128 as getting into neutral zone, SQM 50 - both are below. ALB now looking very shaky and on Friday barely held 120. So a tough time coming up. Ganfeng too lost 1 % for the week. So overall indicators are on decline. Many of the bigger ASX Li stocks, which are more representative of direction, were in read, average decline around 5% for the week, including, PLS, LTR etc. With ASX June tax transactions coming up shortly, we could see more volatility. US general markets also a bit iffy. So no big support from macro may come. US Li lost 7% this week. Last week they 6%. So 2 bad weeks in a row. It is looking very fragile and its time to play with caution in the Li sector. Individual stocks could still do well based on their announcement, but any new play now for those looking for short-term trades, it looks like its good to watch closely now, instead of taking a stab.
- REE Sector overview - This week REE stocks a similar play like Lithium, and many stocks were in red, made a weekly loss of 3% across 30 stocks I track. If the sector was doing well, or an indication that we have started doing well, then we would see stocks like DRE/IXR/HAS/LIN/MEI etc on the rise. Instead all these stocks are well in red and closer towards their 52 week lows. That itself says a lot for the sector. Individual stocks could and have been doing well - WA1/BRE, also VMM wanting to get there, and some small stocks also making a rush. But overall, a caution just to play REE sector overall.
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Personally:
I have been shuffling around some stocks due to June tax transactions, so thought will skip this week my holdings etc.. The only thing I will write that my cash position is around 50% now. For last several months it has been around 20%. So I am taking a stab that general markets, ASX June tax transactions may cause some weakness. But its a "may". One thing I have learnt in last 2 years, is not to assume anything strongly. Have an opinion, a play, but change quickly as the numbers come up. So lets see, an interesting month coming up. As I write categorically, all my analysis and play is for short-term trades. Most people are long, for them its just a nuisance to get thru.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- A good week for SYA, moved from 4.2 to 4.5. But the good week was possible due to a closing auction on Fridays. I haven't read the threads till now. I am hoping its something positive. We have had so many negative news/play etc, that sometimes it has to be opposite. Lets hope its one of that. But the good thing is 4 is looking like holding. Somewhat strongly. 4.1 held number of days. If it was a strong weakness, it would have been rushing towards early 3s. So we are not seeing that, for now. That is certainly positive.
- The big number to play is to get over 5.1, but first play and cross 4.8. If it starts playing around 4.8, odds of going higher increases, so I will be watching that.
- Last week I wrote I had exited my position with a small gain which offset my small loss over 3 months back with PLL share transfer play. I have not yet bought back. Watching.
- PSC made a new high this week, but most big stocks didn't, reflecting a trend that the sector is playing in weakness
- Li stocks lost 1% for the week across 91 stocks, but many big stocks were in red
- Li stocks down 27% for the year, so still in big red territory overall.
- ALB needs to stay over 128 for hope to keep that we are recovering. Otherwise I feel it will be an uphill task. One scare has nearly been dealt this week when it moved towards 120, it is looking vulnerable, lets hope it gets over 128
- On Friday US Li were mixed, so maybe not a great start to the week on Monday, but hopefully neutral
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks
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(20min delay)