Pipeline-in-a-drug, page-21

…. it seems you are very much alert to the possibility of a big pharma partnership/acquisition.

Do you have a view on the potential value and optimal timing?

Yes, I believe there is a high probability of an acquisition. For me, it’s more a question of timing. I won’t speculate on likely price other than to observe that it will be influenced by timing.

If the Company decides that the time is right to sell in the near future I don’t believe it will happen prior to the release of Angelman Phase 2 trial results (July), the End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA (Q3), the decision on new Phase 2 trial protocols (post the EOP2 meeting) and announcement and commencement of the new indications to be advanced into Phase 2 (Jon said new indications won’t be announced for some months yet and Phase 2 trials would commence shortly after).

So, in my view, nothing before Q4 at the very earliest and probably into next year. I’m also of the view that any pharma interested in acquiring Neuren would also prefer to wait at least until after Neuren has met with the FDA. Factoring in the FDA’s stance on NEU’s proposed Phase 3 trial design for PMS and proposed new Phase 2 trial protocols for PWS and any following Phase 2 indications will be crucial for calculating trial success probability, cost and time to market, all of which impact valuation.

Of course, any offers at this stage may be seen as inadequate. If so, Neuren is likely to steam ahead with Phase 3 PMS and PHS trials, possibly, but not necessarily, with a financial backer. The next potentially fruitful time for any takeover discussions, I would think, would come after the first Phase 3 results.

There is obviously significant value in progressing to a successful Phase 3 trial (a la Reata's Skyclarys) but perhaps NNZ-2591's broader potential warrants an earlier handoff. Were there any hints at the AGM?

No. Jon Pilcher plays his cards close to his chest.