$10 Billion Deal, page-12932

Hi GiddyUp.

Yeah, I see your point about it being a bit pessimistically biased. I guess I'm looking at shorter term effects in the good and bad scenarios.

I am a little pessimistic about market reactions even to a "good" technical result. It could be a runaway boom by traders and pumpers .. but my feeling is that this is not a boom time given the pessimism in the economy.. However, I would like to be wrong.

I feel that the runaway boom may have to wait for a real market takeover of investment, not just "Hey isn't this a great result" from the company. Little doubt a good technical result will lift the sp quite well, and hold it at a reasonably good level.

However, I would guess that a lot of the current low to medium amount investors will bail when they see a reasonable profit as they want their money back and a bit plus. Past history of rushes on this stock have been like that. The diehards and brave will hold for a huge gain, but they may have to wait a while for the big takeover/investment. We do not know what the company is doing or prepared to do about that.

Given how the management of the company proceeds in the slow lane where "slow and steady wins the race" seems to be the strategy, it may take a while for the big investors to come up with the goods. The best thing would be two or more big investors wanting in and they will compete to their own limits. Let's hope the management have a few string to pull there!

If only one, it will be more of a "take it or leave it" game, not so good for us lowly share holders as the management may have a different view to a potential investor as to a fair value - either give in too soon, or stretch it too far and don't get a deal.. Not an easy task. We can only hope that the management are better at negotiating a great competitive deal with big investor or investors than they have been with keeping shareholders happy in the development (also not an easy task given the variables in developing a new drugs like these).

However, I am not overly pessimistic about the longer term future. The company has demonstrated excellent technical achievements requiring a lot of skill and perseverance - and on a very very tight budget. My feeling is that this will likely win in the end because it is likely to be valuable for people everywhere. I hope that is not a forlorn hope - and I continue to bet positively on it.

Cheers
Pesa. (The non pessimistic one).