Sorry if already posted...

This forecast report below from the IEA shows that the transformation process towards electromobility, although not as fast as most of us had hoped, is nevertheless unstoppable.
E-car models in the high-priced luxury segment have been prioritised by many European/Western manufacturers with moderate unit numbers because, compared to the vast majority of people who have to calculate precisely, a price difference of 10%-50% to the combustion engine does not play a major role for new car buyers with deep pockets, especially as the higher price is amortised after five years of total cost of ownership (TCO) through savings on refuelling and maintenance.
A major rethink is now taking place:
The mass market for e-cars costing around €20,000 is increasingly coming into focus, as the change in strategy at Volkswagen impressively illustrates:

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/der_boersen_tag/VW-ist-endlich-aufgewacht-article24974239.html (please use your translator)

Western car manufacturers are increasingly realising that this huge market must not be taken over by Chinese car manufacturers!
In future, it will no longer be a question of moderate unit numbers with correspondingly high profit margins, but of sharply calculated sales prices that appeal to the average earner.
It will no longer matter whether the competition from China is 10-20% cheaper, because trust in service and quality will be prioritised.
For example, I personally don't know anyone in my circle of acquaintances who would never ever buy a Chinese electric car...
Import duties and ESG/environmental criteria will also play a major role here!
Huge quantities of lithium are needed for this and secure and independent supply chains are the order of the day!


https://www.virta.global/de/blog/die-zukunft-der-elektromobilitat-die-prognosen-der-iea :

The future of electromobility - The IEA forecasts

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9 mins

05/22/2024 11:14:48

The IEA (International Energy Agency), based in Paris, was founded in response to the oil crisis. Originally intended as an authority to overcome oil shortages, the IEA now serves as an independent source of statistics and data across the entire spectrum of the energy sector, including the future of electric mobility in its annual Global EV Outlook.

The market for electric vehicles

The year 2023

Like 2022, 2023 was a record year for the sale of battery-powered vehicles. 14 million vehicles with plugs (plug-in hybrids and fully electric e-cars) were sold worldwide. This corresponds to around 18 percent of total sales.

High inflation, expiring purchase bonuses, such as the end of and a lack of political stimulus have led to concerns about the success of e-mobility and have also led to some very negative reporting on the sales of e-vehicles.

Nonetheless, the IEA sees continued strong sales figures on a global scale and a bright future for electric mobility. In the first three months of 2024, sales of electric vehicles increased by 25 percent compared to the same period last year.

Key figures for 2023

14 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide , 35 percent more than the previous year.That's 250,000 electric vehicles per week , more than total annual sales ten years ago.18 percent of all vehicles sold were electric in 2023. The year before it was 14 percent. In Europe, the second largest market for electric vehicles, almost 3.2 million vehicles were sold in 2023, 20 percent more than in the previous year.Every fifth new vehicle in Europe came onto the road with a plug.Over 40 million electric vehicles will be on the road worldwide in 2023 - 35 percent more than in 2022 and six times as many as in 2018.China is still the largest market for electric vehicles. More than half of the inventory is in operation here. China is followed by Europe and the United States.

Problem child Germany

Germany is the largest market for electric vehicles in Europe. While every third new car in 2022 still had a plug, in 2023 it was only every fourth.

This makes Germany the only country in Europe that has seen a decline in the share of sales of electric vehicles.

In absolute terms, sales of electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2024 actually fell by 5 percent compared to the same period last year.

This negative trend reversal can be attributed to the end of the purchase bonus for plug-in hybrids at the beginning of 2023 and the expiration of in December 2023.

In Sweden, the share of electric vehicles in sales figures already accounts for 60 percent, and in Norway it is as high as 95 percent.

Predictions for 2024

According to the IEA, 17 million electric vehicles are expected to be sold worldwide in 2024 - an increase of 20 percent compared to 2023.The first quarter of 2024 is already off to a strong start, with 25 percent growth compared to the same period last year. In Europe it is 5 percent. The strongest relative growth can be seen particularly outside the largest markets of China, Europe and the USA. This suggests that electromobility is also gaining momentum in the rest of the world. Inflation, high interest rates, the introduction of import tariffs on electric cars and a gloomy economic outlook could dampen forecast growth in 2024.

Developments in charging infrastructure

Strong growth in fast charging infrastructure

In 2023, the global public charging network will have grown by 40 percent. This means that there are a total of 4 million charging points on the network. At 55 percent, the growth in the fast-charging infrastructure was significantly higher than that of normal charging stations.

At the end of 2023, fast charging stations accounted for over 35 percent of the global public charging stock.

There will be around 730,000 public charging points in operation in Europe in 2023, over 80 percent of which will be in the EU. Germany will have exceeded in 2023 .

Charging at home and at work remains key

While charging at home and at work covers the majority of charging needs, public charging infrastructure continues to play a key role in the success of e-mobility.

This is particularly true in densely populated, urban areas where the installation of private charging stations is limited.

AFIR regulation in the EU

In the European Union, the now requires fast charging stations every 60 km along main traffic axes. This is intended to ensure that 1.3 kW of public charging power is available for each electric car.

Charging stations and energy networks are increasingly merging

As the IEA writes, the installation of charging stations should be coordinated with the development of the electricity network to ensure that new connections comply with the long-term network plan.

If this does not happen, charging may lead to an increase in peak load, which may mean the need to expand transmission and distribution networks.

As electromobility grows, strategies to control charging times, such as and , are becoming increasingly important.

Charging infrastructure forecasts

Charging at home and at work will meet much of future overall demand. Nevertheless, the IEA predicts strong growth in public charging infrastructure.

This is particularly true given the increase in electrification in the heavy commercial vehicle sector. According to the IEA, charging in this vehicle segment is increasingly taking place on the move and no longer exclusively in the depot.

The number of public charging points could increase sixfold to reach 25 million by 2035 to support the market ramp-up of electromobility.

In Europe, the number of public charging points is expected to increase from the current 730,000 to around 2.7 million by 2035.

The biggest obstacle to electromobility is still the price

The prices for electric vehicles are falling continuously, but are still higher than those for vehicles with combustion engines.

The IEA estimates that more than 60 percent of electric vehicles sold in China in 2023 were already cheaper than their average combustion engine counterparts.

The IEA paints a different picture for Europe and the United States. Here, electric vehicles are on average 10 to 50 percent more expensive than gasoline or diesel engines.

That's largely because two-thirds of electric vehicle models available in 2023 are large cars, pickup trucks or sport utility vehicles (SUVs), driving up the average price.

The IEA assumes that price parity will be achieved for most models in 2030.

The IEA calculates: In Germany, the purchase price for an electric vehicle is on average 10 to 20 percent higher than that of a comparable combustion engine. After five years, the total cost of ownership (TCO) has already been paid off through savings in refueling and maintenance.

Developments in the individual vehicle segments

1,000 electric models available by 2028

In 2023, the number of available electric vehicle models increased by 15 percent to a total of 590 models.

According to the manufacturers' announcement, there will be over 1,000 different models for the first time in 2028.

The market dominance of SUVs

A major problem for the global automotive markets - both electric cars and internal combustion engines - continues to be the predominant presence of SUVs and large vehicles among the available models.

According to the IEA, this vehicle class accounts for around two thirds of all available electric models.

Higher profit margins can be achieved with SUVs, which in turn are intended to cover higher development and marketing costs.

Electrification of buses

Sales of electric buses are miles ahead of those of electric heavy-duty vehicles.

In 2023, 50,000 electric buses were sold worldwide. In Belgium, Norway and Switzerland they already make up 50 percent of all new registrations. In the EU, the share of city buses will be 43 percent in 2023. By 2035, all new city buses should be emission-free.

Around a third of all new buses worldwide will be electric by 2035. The proportion of new electric buses is currently only 3 percent, which is due to the sluggish developments in emerging and developing countries.

Heavy commercial vehicles

The heavy-duty vehicle segment remains the slowest to electrify, but government incentives could accelerate progress here too.

Sales of electric trucks increased worldwide by 35 percent in 2023 compared to 2022. In Europe, sales almost tripled to 10,000 units and accounted for over 1.5 percent of total sales.

This trend will continue in the next few years. This is supported, for example, by the EU's initiative to reduce CO₂ emissions from heavy commercial vehicles by 45 percent by 2030 and by 90 percent from 2040 compared to 2019.

In addition, the provides further incentives to switch to an electric drive for heavy-duty transport.

In a global comparison, European vehicle manufacturers offer the largest selection of battery-powered heavy commercial vehicles.

Electric used cars

As sales of electric vehicles increase, used vehicles are becoming increasingly available and cheaper.

In 2023, the used electric vehicle market size was approximately 800,000 in China, 400,000 in the United States, and over 450,000 in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Prices for used electric cars are falling quickly and are becoming competitive with those of traditional combustion engines.

The used car market for electric vehicles is crucial to promoting the acceptance of electric mobility among the general public.

Just as with internal combustion engine vehicles – where buying used is often the primary method of car purchasing in both emerging and developed markets – a similar pattern will emerge with electric vehicles.

In the EU, eight out of ten people buy their car used. Since the market for electric vehicles is no longer in its infancy, the availability of used cars is also increasing.

Further developments in electromobility

Environment and supply chains

With the trend towards larger vehicles and SUVs, the impact on emissions and the environment cannot be ignored.

According to the IEA, around 770 million tons of CO₂ could have been avoided worldwide in 2023 if all new SUVs with combustion engines and hybrid drives had been completely battery-powered. This is equivalent to China's total road emissions in 2023.

In addition, large vehicles require larger batteries and use more resources and rare earths. This also affects supply chains.

If all electric SUVs sold in 2023 had been mid-size cars instead, around 60 GWh of battery equivalent could have been saved worldwide - with no impact on range.

There will be no change in the trend towards larger vehicles in the next few years. Only around a quarter of the new vehicle models announced by 2028 are small or medium-sized cars.

Range

The range of electric vehicles is constantly growing, but according to the IEA, only moderately. The average range for small cars is still 150 km. That's not much more than in 2015.

This is an indication that this range is sufficient for the city.

The IEA sees the greatest development in range in mid-range cars and SUVs. This will be 380 km in 2023.

Electricity demand

According to the IEA, electric vehicles could account for 6 to 8 percent of total electricity demand by 2035; currently it is just 0.5 percent.

In Europe, this share is significantly higher and will reach between 13 and 15 percent of total electricity consumption in 2035, depending on the scenario.

In 2023, the electricity demand of the electric vehicle fleet worldwide was equivalent to 130 TWh, which is roughly the same as Norway's electricity consumption in the same year.

In 2035, electric vehicles will replace a total of 12 million barrels of oil per day.

The 3 scenarios of the IEA

Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)

The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) reflects existing programs and policies as well as policy ambitions and goals already set by governments around the world related to e-mobility and e-cars.

This scenario is intended to hold a mirror up to political decision-makers and show what effects current measures will have for the future. Of the IEA's three scenarios, this is also the one with the least ambition.

If you follow this scenario, around 45 million new electric cars will be registered in 2030. Their share will be 40 percent in 2030 and over 50 percent in 2035 .

Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) refers to existing climate policy concessions and decisions and assumes that all goals and ambitions will be achieved.

This is despite the fact that many announcements have not yet been implemented into national law in many countries, such as the promise of the COP 26 Declaration to accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles.

In contrast to the STEPS, the APS also takes into account political measures and framework conditions that have not yet been defined.

APS predicts that 45 percent of all vehicles sold will be electric in 2030 . If e-mobility continues to develop as planned by governments and decision-makers, according to APS, 1.6 million barrels of oil will be saved per day by 2025 and even 4.6 million per day by 2030.

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)

The Net Zero Scenario (NZE) is defined by the very specific goals for the energy sector to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 and limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 C. Compared to the GSP, the NZE emphasizes the “ambition gap” that needs to be closed to achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

In order to achieve the goal of the NZE scenario, the proportion of electric cars would have to be 65 percent by 2030 . This makes this scenario the most optimistic of the three.