G'morning all.
Moving Day?
Thinking out loud about the next few days: If I weren't already long, (a) where would I like to buy in? (if at all); and (b) when would I like to do it?
On the first question: It would be difficult to argue that the next week, fortnight or month are not going to produce some sort of news. A TD announcement, followed by DST2, 3, 4 and 5 over the coming weeks will provide a stream of updates, any one of which could markedly move the SP. Equally, McDaniel's ongoing assessment of Amistad (Unit 1A, and perhaps some clarification regarding the first assessment), a second opinion on the cores taken from A3's Alameda sheets (from 3,210 and 3,310), and further news regarding field development (particularly the Amistad upper sheet development, for which the company already tabled preliminary plans on 20th December 2023 [ref: presentation], and most likely had further talks with CUPET and Sonangol quite recently). Throw in the cream of the possibility of an upgraded valuation assessment (most likely from Evolution Capital), and we have all the ingredients for a decent share price move.
So to the question of "where" to buy in, it would be difficult to envisage a share price south of 6 cents again (unless some absolute Nigel loses another spanner down the well, or, perhaps a more possible (but not probable) doomsday scenario that there is some form of "collapse" of the well below the VA, ruining the prospects of testing or producing from Marti, but certainly not ruining the prospects for those Alameda plays recently talked about). So, 6.5? 6.6? It really is a "pick a number" game if you are hoping for that pullback, and I - for one - actually think the "settling" of the past few sessions is pretty much as good as you will see for the pullback. As someone here noted a few days ago, there was a tiny gap (between close at 6.5 and an open at 6.6) that may want to be filled, which raises the prospect that 6.6 could hold, or, at worst, the retracement is to 6.5. All that said, the market is quite thin and a position taker may give it a shove lower before sparking up the Hoover. So for my money, anywhere from 6.5 through 6.8 is definitely the "buy zone" for anyone wanting to get in or top up before we hit that run of news.
As for timing: I am guessing most people are thinking TD this week, DST next week (roughly, give or take a day). If that's the case, the bullish argument is that you probably need to get set before COB this Friday (i.e. by 4:10pm tomorrow). And psychology being what it is, if I had cash in hand right now, would I want to chance my arm and wait until tomorrow to do that bidding?
Where I am going with this early morning, overly-verbose rant, is that I think today may indeed be "moving day" for MAY (kind of like Saturday at The Masters). Some early chop, followed by a move back up through 7.0, holding above that at the close and making late-comers pay well into the 7's going into tomorrow's close. And yes, all pure speculation and a 100% guess, based on what I would do (which could end up being vastly different to what the likes of others would do).
Either way - pick your price, pick your time. But in my opinion, all the heavy lifting has now been done, and barring an incident from Nigel, the rig boy, we should have some very interesting weeks ahead.
My motto: Buy. Hold. Patience. No point in fretting the small stuff either.
Enjoy the ride.
Kit.
Expand
(20min delay)