LTP (ASX) Ann: Suspension from Quotation

Originally posted by AdamThompson: ↑

Directors and offices of a company like LTP are unlikely to be testing an application without knowing the result from past tests.

The current tests are formal and recognised trials the TGA and FDA will accept. The format is required by the authorties.

I suspect the company had packaged up a full report for release to the market today as well as ensure the material / results be available for submission to FDA and TGA.

The CEO is in the USA at a conference and likely to also be scheduled to meet with large Pharma companies who would pay billions for a breakthrough drug like Spontan.

I suspect the company turned up at the ASX this morning with their announcement BUT the ASX compliance team asked for more detail and clarity, something that is very normal.

So next step should see the company return to the ASX this afternoon with an updated announcement that the compliance team, approves and releases before the market opens tomorrow.

If the results are positive then it is confirmation the company has test results that will be acceptable to the EDA and TGA which will allow those two organisations to fast track the approval of Spontan into the Australia market first then the USA market.

I would expect the big Pharma companies know the significance of this products potential and will want to control the product through distribution or ownership.

So tomorrow everyone will ask what is the current fair value of LTP and what is the future value, and therefore what is the market price we should trade the share at.

The market will work this out quickly through considering how much big Pharma pays for these products, and we could probably find a reference point that points to US$500m as a minimum while the product is still reviewing testing and seeking final authority approval. But Spontan is tested and if you assume the results are positive then the remaining risk is limited too finalising the approvals with the TGA and FDA. This approval process could take less than 12 months if the results are strong and conclusive.

A fully approved product could be worth US$1b+.

So if we work on the above lower estimated value of US$500m and compare this value to the current fully dilute market cap of $84m, these numbers suggest the current share price could be worth 9X the current price of 64c.

These numbers produce a $5.76 share price.

The runway after this valuation seems to be towards something twice as valuable but we will need to wait.

The above is a general conversation that is hypothetical and not financial advice.

You need to consider the investment for yourself and don't consider my comments as advice nor rely on it for any financial decisions.

It will be interesting to see what valuation some of the big Pharma talk to our CEO about.

Keen to watch over the next few days.

A 10X increase in a share price has happened before when something so valuable is created- The question is whether our company is that valuable.,

Expand

I just hope it is not sale forced on shareholders, personally, i would rather wait 12 months after FDA approval with sales under the belt

i reckon an easy 12.5% of market share would be acheived in this timeframe and while well below my dream of a 17billion dollar company, i would be happy to sell half and divvy the rest.

That's my hope

dyor

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(20min delay)
Last $1.74		Change 0.025(1.46%)		Mkt cap ! $147.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.75	$1.77	$1.69	$536.1K	309.8K

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