Its Over, page-22118

5 reasons why there is a bloodbath ahead in Copper markets into July!

Reason 1: Is the phycial demand gone

China keeps building reserves (at exchanges), which at first glance seems like a strategic build-up of copper, but it is increasingly odd that the Copper does NOT leave the exchange, if we are indeed talking about a reserve bulding exercise

https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1798655411744284745

Reason 2: The Yangshan Cathode premium to LME is still negative, indicating that we should expect a build-up in Asian warehouses that might flood the LME by July

https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1798655414294438345

Reason 3: The treatment charge in China is nearing zero, but smelters, bound by long-term contracts, keep churning out refined copper, leading to a build-up on Chinese exchanges.

https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1798655417037541505

Reason 4: Positioning in Comex July Copper is extreme! Chinese copper inventories can’t flow directly to Comex, they can impact prices via the LME. Everyone’s been betting on a Chinese copper story via Comex copper, which is a very indirect bet at best.

https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1798655419705143385

Reason 5: The Copper curve is attractive to short The roll-yield in the copper curve has flipped completely over the past three weeks. It is no longer expensive to short Copper, while it is expensive to be long AND wrong from a roll-yield perspective.

https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/1798655422267805975