Agree with that. Starting to feel like they might turn a corner, but also conscious there's always some sort of surprise in the wings. But if they can get through the rest of the quarter without having to tap the market, and show some solid cash build then things might be looking up. The caution here is the line in the quarterly that said: "Capital expenditure is forecast to be ~15% above guidance because of continued boxcut capitalisation of Ellensfield South while it ramps towards steady-state mining, which is anticipated to be achieved in the June 2024 quarter".
So they are still spending on the ES boxcut (this is why in my calcs below I assumed they might still spend up to say $15M). Immediately above that line was a 'guidance' box which showed that YTD they were already at $88M for capex spend, with full-year guidance at $70-80M. It is a bit hard to interpret the outcome here because if you take the midpoint of full-year guidance ($75M), their YTD spend is already 17% above this... so how are they "forecast to be ~15% above guidance" when they've still got one quarter of capex spend left to account for?
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- Ann: Investor Presentation March 2024 Quarterly Update
Ann: Investor Presentation March 2024 Quarterly Update, page-92
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