General Discussion, page-398

So what is happening here - looking dark and gloomy - SP and posts?

Yes not a great week, dropped from 9.3 to 7.6 - around 20% decline. Volume was high on Monday, but that day we gained. Since then, steady decline on much lower volumes.

The raise was at 10c. For few days it stayed well above that. But last week dipped below. And this week, much further down. So who is selling? One would think, all the recent CR holders would have got out in the first few days when it was above 10. Not many want to take an immediate loss. The volumes are also indicating that it may not be people selling out of loss - like recent CR holders. It may be more likely people holding for 2s and 3s. We are into June. SP is not looking great. Lets cash in. We will never know, but I feel that play may be happening, though I may be wrong.

Personally, couple of weeks back I wrote, I had got out at 12.5 from my buys at 4.5. The reason I had given was I was not sure how the CR play will happen. Also I was concerned about June tax transactions. But today I bought. At average 7.6. Why did I buy? I think I took a risk, a calculated risk. The June tax play is still on. Stock has risen big time from 2s and 3s - and many wanting to cash in may still be there. But I play with odds. I started getting a feeling, that odds of making a gain has been increasing from this level. We are not there yet, but may be getting close. But I didn't buy all I wanted to buy. I bought one-third. Rest I want to see how it plays. I wouldn't be surprised for a play lower before we go higher. I want to buy then. I know I can't pick bottom, so trying to average. In medium term I am feeling positive, so will add. But if price action is very bad, I may exit. I have learnt one thing - its good to minimise losses rather than maximising profits. But at this stage, after all my buys, if my average is somewhere in the 7s, I will feel comfortable - doesn't guarantee anything though.

So what may happen next week? I was reading thru the posts. Many talk about manipulation. Brokers selling etc. Based on my reading, especially volume, I feel its just normal trading, profit taking. Volume is not enough that someone will push it down and sell for lower, because not enough volume to recoup. Its possible, but at this stage its not. So we will have to ride this phase. Many holding from 2s/3s will be happy to sell here, or even lower. Buyers are saying - we won't step up, you come down. And this play may happen. One of the reasons I only bought one-third. But we don't know, we can all gues. Lets hope we have a better next week. All the best.