June 24 - MSB % of portfolio AND + or - %, page-83

Hi @pld89,

yes, as sailor's know all too well, a stern chase is a long chase.

So many things can go wrong along the way. There's the minefield of patent protection, for example. Chasing along in the dark behind the leader at full speed, and then kablooie! But even if you don't hit a mine while chasing that lead vessel, it's the uncertainty of knowing whether you can avoid it that affects the funding you might otherwise get to carry on your chase. Opportunity is always risked, as you know.

And sometimes, that commercial first-mover advantage - like a favourable breeze - is so great it can actually drain all momentum from potential chasing competition - & that's before the competition even gets started. The result I'm most familiar with is potential share capital loss i.e. money tends to take the path of least resistance, so it can literally bleed a company dry when it leaves a late start-up trying to compete (always in need of capital raising) & moves to a diversified competitor already operating in the marketplace & able to deliver a derisked return of capital. Especially if there's the prospect of dividends, which CEO Itescu mentioned last AGM.

For MSB, in a regulatory context, there are 2 extra considerations:

A. the need to seek prior licensing from the FDA i.e. to run the gauntlet through IND's and then the entire BLA process from start to finish, with no guarantees that you won't have to go all the way through to Phase III and even beyond;

B. special exclusivities e.g. ODD which effectively reserve for the first-mover those economic exploitation benefits in the US healthcare system; and

C. the benefits of mandatory index-driven fund investments, kicking in on the relevant exchanges to take potential capital away from competitors as growth occurs.

So, I'm with you in thinking it doesn't really matter which way you look at the situation, MSB's efforts to protect the imminent economic opportunities in front of it seem to make it the lead horse IMO. And - bonus - in more than one race.

All good as I see it.

Cheers
GLTA(LT)H