US / Euro Tariffs - Forecast Effect on NdPr Oxide Demand/Supply, page-8

You missed one of the key ex-China suppliers coming online in 2026 (and that is a guaranteed online time given they are balls deep in construction right now) - Eneabba. Below their NdPr production profile, but capacity to push out 5.5 ktpa in the plant with offtakes. I'd imagine as they get closer to build date they will firm up offtakes to get to 5.5 ktpa. Assuming they get half the offtakes in place (not like there is a shortage of monazite feedstock around!) and they push out 4 ktpa NdPr your charting looks like the below.





It looks like ex-China supply is covered well until 2029 at least thanks to Eneabba. Meteoric also stated they are planning for first production in 2028, that's another 2.5 ktpa NdPr oxide roughly coming along ex-China, there's also plenty of other quick to come online clay projects like VMM & ARA:TSX potentially in the mix. Serra Verde may also ramp up through the next 5 years. So a few different supply points to factor into the above modelling. Maybe if you add a likelihood factor % against each ptoential supply source ktpa that would cover them all well.