Quarterly predictions, page-964

Firstly if they were to declare a 2c interim dividend in Aug payable Sep from the result to 30Jun24 then I would regard that as a dividend trap - why? because they'll have both eyes on trying to raise funds for the North Pit underground development at the best possible price.
I don't believe they would want to raise debt finance for this development and so the total burden would fall to shareholders - the next question is would Shagang stump up their 47% share on that equity raising or would they dilute their shareholding?
I do find the comings and goings of our CEO, Honglin Zhao over the last twelve months to be a series of interesting moves for one reason or another.
I'm locked into thinking that within six months' time there will be double the number of shares on issue than there is today. In this scenario I can't really foresee a 2 cent dividend per half year before the turn of the decade.
If costs are going to remain at a quarterly basis of $95mil for 'Mining & Processing' as they were in the March24 quarter then prices would have to rise by at least 35% from here(currently today ~US$121/t for 65grade plus pellet premium US$13.5/t) on today's issued shares. The problem they have at the moment, as highlighted in the AGM slide(slide 11) presentation from last year(9May23), is that they fell way behind in waste removal from the North Pit(open pit) and they're spending extra dollars this year in catching this up so there is no shortfall in production in subsequent years(2025 to 2028) before ore becomes available from NPUG.
I really don't think there is any hurry in investing here for the foreseeable future especially if shareholders are facing a 50% dilution in their shareholdings later this year if they don't cough up to the equity raising that might see prices back to 20c.