Yes, I see “a lot” of planned production increases and new operations… but this has to be seen within the context of increasing demand also.
Afaict, we are looking at demand increasing somewhere in the 200kt-300kt LCE range, per year, over the next say decade or so.
In “spod” terms, this is equivalent to roughly 1.6M-2.4M tonnes of NEW spod concentrate each year.
Of course, it won’t all come from spod, but that provides some perspective when considering new spod supply numbers.
Here is an interesting chart from BMI, from earlier this year, that shows their estimate of supply vs demand. Interestingly, imo, we can see that if their numbers turn out to be somewhat “correct”, then there is significant sensitivity to demand rising off the “base case” scenario.
Combine that with delays/issues/etc with new supply, and I don’t think it’s a “given”, as some out there appear to be claiming, that there’ll be “oversupply” for “several more years”, or “until 2028”, etc.
It will be very interesting to see how the supply/demand and pricing landscape evolves in the next 6-12 months, imo.
Here is an interesting relevant chart that I saw the other day (thanks to @8horse over the road).
Again, just food for thought.
Cheers
imo
Dyor
LTM Price at posting:
$5.34 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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