I note that some analysts have also talked about 'unrisked' valuations. But even these haven't made much sense to me. As if I do an unrisked valuation I end up with 10-20x the numbers they've published
Yes but you and the rest of the CSL-parity price crew ignore the 100s of millions of dollars and the massive dilution required to get to that unrisked state. Plus there is execution risk, competition risk, regulatory risk, health and safety risk. The list goes on and on. I want NEU to get taken over for a motza and create intergeneration wealth for my family BUT its a fantasy to say I should capture all of the upside. There has to be something left on the table for the next guy. Otherwise you are just expecting a business to transfer all of their future "risky" earnings to us as unrisked cash right now. It just doesn't work that way, How does $US15 billion minimum look if one kid dies from taking Daybue. Of course everything says its safe and well tolerated but one black swan event would be devastating to shareholder value. Yet you guys think a hard arse BP should hand over $15B MINIMUM on the basis that "she'll be right mate I've done a spreadsheet that says she's worth gazillions."
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3 | 1467 | 20.360 |
1 | 1033 | 20.350 |
2 | 1853 | 20.340 |
1 | 828 | 20.320 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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20.490 | 1026 | 2 |
20.550 | 2289 | 3 |
20.560 | 639 | 2 |
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