New all time high, page-509

There is far too much price anchoring happening on these threads. People remember the stock being $16 or $11 and think that means $6 is cheap. This is completely missing the obvious: the stock is de-rating in line with the fundamentals. A year ago, the stock was heading into the end of June at $15/sh. Open that quarterly, compare it to the most recent one, and you see the cold hard numbers:

• Jun 2023: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 429,000t at an average price of US$5,431/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$3,493,000,000.
• Mar 2024: Greenbushes on a 100% basis did spodumene sales of 182,800t at an average price of US$1,034/t, for total quarterly sales revenue of A$285,900,000.

So in simple terms, between June 2023 and March 2024:
- Sales fell -57%
- Revenue fell -92%
- Average realized Li price fell -81%
- The share price is actually only down -60%

If you annualize their March 2024 quarterly result, the stock is actually trading on 20x EV/EBITDA. So unless the lithium price recovers soon, this trend could continue. Be wary of people who carry on like "the share price has halved" as though that means it's a buying opportunity - they too are completely missing the point.