CLG 0.00% 22.0¢ close the loop ltd.

Ann: Business Update, page-7

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    According to the recent Cannacord research report it looks like CLG is looking to refinance their debt which will be value accretive :

    Highly cash-generative business which supports balance sheet de-leveringCLG is a robustly cash-generative business, with group EBITDA margins of +20%,low capital expenditure requirements (<$10m/pa), and the potential to refinance itsdebt structure (CGe 300-400 bps interest cost reduction, $2m interestreduction/NPAT uplift). We project CLG generates EPS growth of 37% and FCF yieldof 10% in FY24E.With 1H24 net debt of $26m ($82m debt and $56m cash) and based on its currentearnings profile, CLG is geared at 1.2x, with interest coverage of 4.6x. The expecteddebt refinancing (CGe 1Q25) coupled with the businesses cash generation should seeCLG move to net cash positive in 2H25, with rapid net cash build thereafter (CGe$100m net cash FY28E). This supports optionality for future growth throughacquisitions or organic expansion, or other capital management strategies thecompany sees fit.Figure 6: Net cash build from FY25ESource: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity estimatesFrom a valuation perspective, the direct benefit from a reduced cost of debt, assuminga 350bp reduction, would see CLG’s WACC reduce from 12% to 10.4%, supporting a13% DCF valuation uplift (implies DCF of $0.85/share vs current $0.75/share). Thisis before considering any indirect benefit to its multiple from perceived balance sheetstability.
 
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