Woodside, page-1394

A few reasons why I think Woodside is massively undervalued with a re-rate just a matter of time. The SP is pricing is a long-term oil price of $62/boe.

1. Oil (Brent) is at $82. (higher than average, Woodside investments are made at Brent $65)
2. JKM (Spot LNG) is at $12/mmbtu (strong spot price)
3. AUD/USD is at 0.66 (lower than average FX of ~0.76).
4. Committed Projects on track (Sangomar, Scarborough/Pluto2, Trion) and Growth looking good (Sunrise LNG project has Aus Govt strongly backing it. East Timor and Australia talk gas deal (smh.com.au), Calypso - BP are keen to FID)

The Oil price in Australian dollars is quite high historically and Woodside has a very strong balance sheet with gearing at 12% at end 2023.
Dividends will remain strong because cash flow and balance sheet are strong. For CY2024, Net Cash Flow should be around US$7 billion versus US$6.15 billion in 2023. (Higher YoY because 2023 Net Cash Flow was adversely affected by large tax payment from 2022 record profits).
So US$7 Billion + US$2.35 billion from sales proceeds you have a total of 9.35 billion (cash in), less 5.35 billion (cash capex) so a total of US$3 billion available for dividends without any increase in gearing. That amounts to US$1.6 per share (US$3 billion / 1.9 billion shares) which is AU$3.5 fully grossed up with franking or a 13% yield!

Bulk of Woodside's earnings are in Australia from NWS, Pluto, Wheatstone etc. so plenty of franking credits available. Last I checked in the 2023 annual reports US$1.8 billion franking credits available