Did a bit of analysis of the ARU SP, Short position and NdPr Pricing....
Method:
- Align the Share Price movement, Short movement and NdPr Price movement along the same time series.
- Annotate the ASX anoucements.
- And have a good hard look.
Takeaway points (all are just IMHO):
-New Upward Trend - SP from Feb 2024 (New CEO) appears to be on an upward trend (even with the large increase in the percentage short position). I believe this is great for when FID is achieved. All those borrowed shares will have to be bought back. The ARU should then hopefully ‘Pop’!
-No correlation with the NdPr price - It was a bit of a surprise to see that there was no correlation between the NdPr prices and ARU share price. Although I was finding it hard to get the longer-term price history. If someone could provide a screenshot that would be awesome and I can update.
-China selling on market to damage SP - The shorters have likely been using the momentum provided by ECE Nolans (China) constant selling of their shares on market.
-Capital Raise Manipulation - How does ASIC not see the manipulation done by shorters when companies (not just ARU) do capital raises. Is this how we want our capital markets to operate?
-Shorting/Manipulation curtails good announcements - It is interesting to see how the SP is allowed to move up with good news when there are almost no short positions. Look at the Hyundai/Kia Binding Offtake (Nov 2022). The SP went up about 20 cents on that news. But then look at the Siemens Binding Offtake (April 2023) and Aust Govt Debt (March 2024). The shorters are able to keep the SP down even with this de-risking/great news.
Also...have a Look at the Market Caps
VHM and NTU are about 10 years away from the position ARU are in...and ARU are just a couple hundred million more in MC? Really?
And BRE - that is also years away....and they are worth double ARU? Really?
In my opinion, the current ARU SP does not reflect the value of the company and it's current risk profile (almost all off take announced, almost all debt announced and equity not far away, global NdPr tariffs etc. etc. ).
(20min delay)