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Shell Australia chair Cecile Wake told the forum that LNG exporters on the east coast of the country were already responding to changing dynamics before the government’s gas intervention two years ago.

Shell is a major LNG exporter through its Queensland gas plant and also supplies significant volumes to east coast markets.

Ms Wake said “while we understand the government’s drivers” for the gas market interventions in 2022, “I think, behaviourally and in practical terms, the LNG exporters on the east coast were already responding to divert, voluntarily, molecules from export to ensure that the domestic market is fully supplied.”

AEMO said gas shortfalls could emerge as soon as next year under extreme weather conditions and the deficiencies would grow from 2026 in southern states. Even if Australia is spared the extreme weather that drives demand for gas in Victoria and the ACT primarily, AEMO said a material shortfall would occur in 2028 as traditional sources to the east coast run dry.