I was wondering if anyone else had thoughts on this subject of technology projections? Today the Coalition suggested that one of the advantages of nuclear power was that it had an 80 year operating window. I'm not interested in discussing the nuclear option. What is relevant is the recognition of exponential technology developments.
If you cast your mind back to 1903, the Wright brothers aboard a wood and fabric aircraft launched the human race into the era of flight.Within 66 years Neil Armstrong was walking on the moon. What an achievement by the human race!
That story of exponential technology development exemplifies why I am always banging on about the utter necessity to include technological revolution guesstimates into any future development projections. There maybe good reasons to consider nuclear, but the Wright brothers example makes a mockery of 80 years of expected technology relevance. To suggest any technology will be relevant in even 50 years seems absurd.
That's why I love Fortescue's eternal search for process perfection.
I may have previously mentioned this...the AFR has on numerous occasions listed the 2 most common dangerous mistakes investors make are:
1. Confirmation bias, i.e.giving preference to consuming reading material etc which supports one's existing beliefs. Aka residing in echo chambers. A fundamental intellectual weakness to be wary of.
2.Underestimating the rate of technology evolution. My observations reveal this is so common to render it bordering on universal. An extremely dangerous mistake leading to inefficient planning. Twiggy could never be accused of this mistake, in fact, it can be challenging just to keep up with the now Fortescue Empire of industries.
Our drive towards zero carbon technology is what energises and excites me to be involved with such a fantastic team of people. Does anybody else have similar or contradictory thoughts on this subject? Please feel welcome to reject or even ridicule this method of assessing companies' investment worthiness.Of course, there are other factors to consider, however the propositions I have put forth are most prominent in my modus operandi of investment choices. I'd be interested to hear others' methods
Much gratitude to Twiggy for the inspiration to keep challenging, keep learning, keep growing.
Happy investing everybody, wes
FMG Price at posting:
$21.71 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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