Beetaloo or bust: the route to commercial success for an Australian shale play, page-20

“Based on current technology, gas-powered electricity generation is expected to provide essential firming services as the renewable power generation capacity expands and coal-fired power exits Australia’s grids.

Within the NEM and Northern Territory, demand is projected to be volatile, with declines expected in the medium term, and increases from out to 2043 and to 2050. In particular, peak daily demand for gas in the NEM may increase by a factor of two to three by 2043. Uncertainty is high.

The scenarios show a wide range of non-linear scenarios depending on the closure of coal-fired power generators and rate of build of renewables. The role of gas in firming by 2050 is uncertain but likely. The rollout of alternatives to firming, such as long-duration batteries, hydrogen and thermal storage gives rise to this uncertainty. Within the WEM, gas demand for power generation is expected to rise to 2033.”

Future Gas Strategy

U N C E R T A I N T Y