I agree with you that the last 2 CRs have been poorly timed. This is evident. However, mitigating your comments:
1) Youanmi has been successfully mined before. As it was a while ago and mining methods have improved, presumably, it can be mined again.
2) Unlike 5+ years ago, there is a lot more room for error in a mine commissioning scenario, due to the high price of gold.
3) Hawkes Point’s investment, to me is providing some third party validation of the merits of the project. I cannot judge the accuracy of this comment but I have been told that some of the players at Hawkes Point know mining at an elite level so I take their holding as a positive. They also invest in companies that go into production.
4) There is a lot of talk about refractory gold (what you call “difficult” mining). However, I have been told by the company that the mining is not complex, Youanmi has been a mine before and if you plan it correctly it will successfully fly. My impression of Rob Ryan is that he is a “mining geek” and very thorough, hence analysing 3 alternative processing options in the PFS. He has a reasonably impressive CV with excellent industry credentials. I personally don’t believe that anyone with decent mining credentials, with any seniority in a mining organisation, is posting on HotCopper, so criticisms of him on this platform are taken with a grain of salt by me. Also, having spoken with him I have also formed the opinion that he is not the kind of person who would personally invest money into the company unless he thought the underlying project had legs. He does not strike me as that type of person- my opinion only.
5) The lack of takeover interest is not a game changer. Every company that has moved from being an explorer to a producer has not been taken over. BGL is considered to be a great company and you cannot claim that because it was not taken out that it is a lemon. I also note that whenever this topic comes up the significant blocking stakes (VMC and Hawkes Point) are always ignored.
6) The numbers in the PFS will likely be very good. I also believe it will be a “real”, workable PFS. The market (which appears to be small retail investors as Summit recently posted the increased buying in the Top 20) can be irrational for periods of time. The current assessment of the economic value of Youanmi is based on a Scoping Study with a $300m odd NPV. In a few weeks time that should be materially superseded. If the market does not take notice of a significantly profitable outlook, then the major weakness in the company, to me will be the effective marketing of the company to the investor public, which will need to be addressed by the Directors.
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