...we hear so much about cost of living issues, but I doubt Australians have really rein in their spending. Only those below middle class and some mortgage holders.
...the car park at the DFO is super full with people buying fashion goods on sale.
...we could be moving into a stagflationary type scenario. A higher for longer domestic rates won't help ASX, and more would be flocking into cash deposits, deserting equities after an unnecessarily painful foray in 2024. VanEck: Australia could be ‘highest for longest’
Joshua Peach
VanEck head of investments Russel Chesler said the May CPI figures have pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia – and increased the chances of a hike in the coming months.
“We weren’t expecting the RBA to cut rates until the second half of 2025, but the hotter-than-expected CPI print today indicates this could be even further away,” he said.
Chesler added that Australia could now be one of the few developed markets to raise rates.
“Forget ‘higher for longer’ – we may end up being the ‘highest for the longest’,” he said.
1 hr ago – 11.38AM Bond traders are ramping up rate hike bets
Cecile Lefort
Money markets are ramping up bets that the next move from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be a cash rate increase.
Bond traders are now pricing in a 41 per cent chance that the RBA will raise the cash rate to 4.6 per cent by September this year. That’s up from 13 per cent before the data hit. It’s fully priced for a rate cut by April 2025.
That’s after the monthly headline consumer price index indicator in May rose 4 per cent in annual terms, up from 3.6 per cent in April, overshooting analysts’ consensus forecast of 3.8 per cent.
The trimmed mean core measure, which smooths out volatile items, rose 4.4 per cent from 4.1 per cent in April.
