Ann: Galan Lithium Limited Appoints CFO, page-53

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Buckaroo737

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27/06/24

23:27

Post #: 74514903
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Originally posted by mondyinvest: ↑

I don’t quite agree about the no new supply part. Galan is a unproven junior currently trying to finance a relatively insignificant size project. Just because they may fail to lock in this finance doesn’t equate to no new supply from other players. It wouldn’t be the first time someone struggles to finance a project whose capex is outsized verses their market cap/balance sheet.

The new supply doesn’t need to come from other specs who I agree will struggle to be financed. Think about what’s happening in the market right now:

- Chinese lepidolite output is at highest YTD levels than in any of the prior 5 years (per JPM data)
- Goulamina now looks like it will come online
- Chinese ramping supply out of Zimbabwe (yes)
- Greenbushes owners levering up their debt position to grow capacity
- Kathleen Valley due to start producing in the coming months
- Mineral Resources continuing to expand their various options backed by a huge balance sheet
- Pilbara releasing their P2000 expansion plans

I think it’s too simplistic to imply “if Galan don’t get funded, neither do the others, no new supply”. Galan is an $80M market cap with an inexperienced management team. There are plenty of global heavy hitters, including many I haven’t mentioned like ALTM, Tianqi, Ganfeng, with big balance sheets and plenty of opportunity to ramp up in the coming years.

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Basically KV and Goulamina with the Chinese are the last ones to get through for a while if GLN don't get up, I don't see any others getting up anytime soon if GLN doesn't.

GLN Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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