AI will require over 17 bfc/d of natural gas-fired power globally, page-5

The only time monthly shale growth ever consistently approached 1 bcf/d was in 2017-2019; however, the shales were far less developed than today. In 2017, we estimate the Marcellus had only produced 30% of its total recoverable reserves, compared with over 50% today. Similarly, the Haynesville and Permian had made 25% and 30% of their recoverable reserves, respectively, compared with 50% today.

Last decade, the Fayetteville and Barnett started their declines once half their reserves were produced. Our models suggest the same thing will happen with the Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian. As a result, we believe the massive rebound the EIA expects next year will not be possible. Making matters worse, the average well quality in the Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian is steadily deteriorating, another indication of imminent field exhaustion. Cumulative six-month gas production per lateral foot in the Haynesville is 5% below the peak set in 1Q21. In the dry gas section of the Marcellus, productivity is 19% below the 4Q21 peak, while in the liquids-rich section of the play, productivity is 3% below the 2Q22 peak. In the Delaware side of the Permian, productivity peaked in 2019 and is currently 11% lower. In the Midland, productivity peaked in 2Q2020 and is currently 12% lower. Between 2017 and 2019, productivity steadily improved, providing a solid tailwind for monthly production growth.

With productivity declining, we believe the same robust growth will be impossible. Just as supply is set to falter, demand is expected to surge. The most critical driver is LNG terminal capacity. Over the next eighteen months, exports will increase by 4 bcf/d as three new domestic projects come online.

Plaquemines is expected to commence commercial operations in the third quarter, ramping to 1.3 bcf/d. Corpus Christi will start next at 1.3 bcf/d, followed by Golden Pass in 2025 at 1.4 bcf/d. By mid-2027, an incremental 5 bcf/d of additional capacity is expected to come online, bringing total LNG exports to an incredible 20.4 bcf/d compared with less than 12 bcf/d today, the sharpest three-year growth in US history. Furthermore, both Canada and Mexico are sanctioning new LNG export capacity that could impact US supply. LNG Canada’s $30 bn Kitimat project will start up later this year, reaching its 1 bcf/d Phase I capacity in 2025. Although this gas will be sourced from Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin fields, it can potentially impact the nearly 8 bcf/d currently imported via pipeline from Canada. New Fortress Energy is almost ready to commission its Mexican Altamira project, which will liquefy 1bcf/d of US gas imported via pipeline. Along with the US terminals, these two projects will further tighten the North American market.