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dawgfather

9,851 Posts.

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28/06/24

21:01

Post #: 74527803
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Originally posted by SugeKnight: ↑

For the record im no longer holding at the present time. I did buy/sell a few times in attempt to catch the knife but ultimately sold out when $1 support broke

But more to do with trying to time the market. I'm not holding any lithium stocks at the moment, as the downtrend is still in play. Will look to buy back into lithium when I feel the time is right

LTR specifically i am more worried now about the financing potentially falling through

The reason being is the current state of the lithium market, and some analysts such as Goldman Sachs having bearish views. For example with GS:

2024: US$928 per tonne
2025: US$800 per tonne
2026: US$978 per tonne
2027: US$1,155 per tonne

Some other brokers / analysts have more bullish forecasts for the long term, but who knows where the banks are getting their info from.

The current state of the lithium market does put that financing at risk, and if it falls through there will be a CR to fund the project which will be awful for the SP. At this stage I'm 50/50, I still think there's a chance it will get approved, but my confidence has decreased from before. I wouldn't be risking my capital at this stage and rather observe from the sidelines. Who knows, maybe if the banks pull out, LTR could maybe get partial funding from the gov and the rest from a CR.

In regards to the first few quarters operating at a loss, I think the market already expects this / probably pricing it in. But ultimately as they progress the costs should come down and the market may potentially be forward looking

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Agree on the shocking sentiment (as you say). Albemarle has recently said that current prices aren’t high enough to justify new investment which I mostly agree with (with the exception of hard rock in low cost jurisdictions with simple flow-sheets).

Definitely nothing under development in Canada or Australia will get financed at these levels (and this includes my current assumption that LTR’s financing won’t be secured).

The only optimism I have is that l dont believe that chemical prices have much further downside (but I also still believe there needs to be more failures before prices can recover). SYA should be in C&M at a minimum.

LTR Price at posting: 90.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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