Target $18.72, page-9318

I know that is one of the factors. Just wanting to hear from Alex as to his thoughts.

There are other factors (below are only some)

Yes, excessive supply/high stockpiles
Less supply disruptions (COVID)
Growth of renewable energy
Growth of natural gas usage and low natural gas prices
Low oil prices
World economic growth has halted because of inflation

If and when these wars (ISRAEL/HAMAS and RUSSIA/UKRAINE) end, world economic growth should expand. There will be so much infrastructure and rebuilding which will require all sorts of commodities. Therefore the biggest requirement will be be steel and energy.

That is why wars are good for commodities but it takes time. Look at the boom after World War 2. That lasted for decades.

To be honest, I like the fact that many analysts etc say that coal is doomed. From my experience when they say certain commodities have no future it turns out that from excessive supply we go to to excessive demand which we all know the end result. Something usually happens to change the demand/supply equation. In our modern world, when there is demand and factors that drive demand, supply is unable to keep pace, hence increase in prices until supply catches up and the cycle starts again. How long all this happens for is anyone's guess.

Like Alex says, everyone says that lithium and uranium going to go higher and then it does the opposite.
Not sure why this always happen but commentators and analysts mostly get it wrong.
Even here in Australia, I can't ever remember when the standing Treasurers get the forecasted prices of coal right or for that matter iron ore.
Gloomy outlook means a BUY in my opinion. How long it takes to change the demand/supply equation is again anyone's guess.

The spike in prices was all due to 2 things, COVID (supply was difficult, demand was high) as well as the onset of war between Russia and Ukraine. This has been reported and is common knowledge.

Coal prices are forecast to go down over time but I'm not sure how future renewable energy will allow for economic growth. Coking and thermal coal is needed. Period.