I think this plan B that Tom's executing, because Raf deal wasn't completed in time, has been a silver lining, not easily identified initially. The rush to secure the deal that didn't eventuate was in hindsight, an enabler that has led to a staged deal making process. It's largely hinging on Shallow at this stage, but regardless allows a honed revision of staircase farm-outs that should unlock greater value for us.
There definitely seems to be a sense of urgency to drill and test Shallow and Mars this year, not only because it will change Raf-1 deal leverage and structure, but also because cash flow at the earliest possible time should help accelerate Phase 1 execution.
I don't think Buru are trusted by the market, so whether 400-800 bcf or 800-1200 bcf is mentioned in presentations, it seems meaningless to the market at this point. Conservative volumes will facilitate Phase 1 and should the appraisal drilling prove 1Tcf+ at a later stage, then we'll enjoy the sp bump then.
The market values Buru poorly and I suspect it needs proof their plan is achievable.
Line of sight catalysts are slowly approaching as are a forced sum of parts re-rate with Geovault and 2H spin-offs.
I'd like to see enough oil discovered in 2024 to initiate storage / export tanks at Broome / Derby as soon as possible to significantly improve profit margins when / if production begins.
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