Following the publication of the second FRC report on 18 March 2024, which projected that a Famine would occur in the most likely scenario, a number of important developments occurred. In contrast with the assumptions made for the projection period (March – July 2024), the amount of food and non-food commodities allowed into the northern governorates increased. Additionally, the response in the nutrition, water sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and health sectors was scaled up. In this context, the available evidence does not indicate that Famine is currently occurring.
However, the situation in Gaza remains catastrophic and there is a high and sustained risk of Famine across the whole Gaza Strip. It is important to note that the probable improvement in nutrition status noted in April and May should not allow room for complacency about the risk of Famine in the coming weeks and months. The prolonged nature of the crisis means that this risk remains at least as high as at any time during the past few months.
The FRC encourages all stakeholders who use the IPC for high-level decision-making to understand that whether a Famine classification is confirmed or not does not in any manner change the fact that extreme human suffering is without a doubt currently ongoing in the Gaza Strip, and does not change the immediate humanitarian imperative to address this civilian suffering by enabling complete, safe, unhindered, and sustained humanitarian access into and throughout the Gaza Strip, including through ceasing hostilities. All actors should not wait until a Famine classification is made to act accordingly.
This is the third time the FRC has reviewed an analysis conducted by a multi-agency, multi-sectoral analysis team to determine the current and projected acute food security situation in the Gaza Strip. The first analysis, conducted in December 2023, concluded that there was a risk of Famine within the projection period of December 2023 to May 2024, and that the risk would increase for each day that the intense conflict and restricted humanitarian access persisted or worsened.
The second review was published on 18 March 2024 and confirmed that Famine was projected and imminent in the North Gaza and Gaza Governorates, and that the risk of Famine persisted in all other governorates of the Gaza Strip.
In May, FEWS NET conducted an IPC-Compatible analysis of the food security situation and found that it is possible famine was ongoing in northern Gaza during April. In line with IPC protocols, the FRC reviewed this analysis and concluded that, given the uncertainty and lack of convergence of the supporting evidence employed in the analysis, it was unable to make a determination as to whether or not famine thresholds have been passed during April. Therefore, the FRC was unable to endorse the FEWS NET analysis. The FEWS NET report and the FRC report were both published on 4 June.2
Following the publication of the second FRC report on 18 March, which projected a Famine to occur in the most likely scenario, several important developments occurred. In contrast with the assumptions made for the projection period (March – July 2024), the amount of food and non-food commodities allowed into the northern governorates steadily increased. Additionally, the response in the nutrition and other sectors was scaled up. In this context, at the moment, the available evidence does not indicate that Famine is occurring.
A new analysis was conducted by the multi-agency analysis team between 27 May and 4 June 2024 and the FRC was requested to assess the plausibility of the risk of Famine for the projected period (16 June to 30 September 2024).
The FRC finds the analysis team’s classifications in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for the “current” period (1 May – 15 June) for all areas plausible.
The FRC also considers the analysis team’s classification of IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) for the projection period (16 June – 30 September 2024) for all the areas plausible, based on the scenario and assumptions set by the analysis team.
The FRC finds the risk of Famine plausible for all areas, based on the assumptions set by the analysis team. A high risk of Famine persists as long as conflict continues, and humanitarian access is restricted. The FRC also considers that, due to a high level of population movements between the three southern governorates during the current and projection periods, it is appropriate to consider a risk of Famine analysis for the combined areas.
The speed of deterioration observed in previous months, compounded by the increased vulnerability of the population after more than eight months of inadequate dietary intake, WASH, and health conditions, increase the probability that Famine could occur during the projection period. Given the unpredictability of the ongoing conflict and humanitarian access challenges, any significant change may lead to a very rapid deterioration into Famine.
The availability of and access to food and basic services remain fluid and closely tied to events on the ground. The last few months have demonstrated that food and humanitarian access and malnutrition prevalence can change very quickly, the risk of epidemics is increasing and eight months of extreme pressure on the lives of the population make them much more vulnerable to collapse into famine. Therefore, it remains possible that Famine thresholds could be surpassed at any time whilst humanitarian access is not sustained and unhindered across the entire population of Gaza and conflict continues in any form.
In Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, the size of the population at risk and the extreme population density that is expected within the Israeli-designated ‘humanitarian zones’, combined with inadequate supply lines and infrastructure, including water supply points, increase the risk of epidemic outbreaks and raise the possibility that the situation will rapidly deteriorate into a catastrophe of unprecedented magnitude compared to the suffering already witnessed in Gaza since October.
Analysis of food insecurity, malnutrition, and mortality has been severely hampered by lack of physical access to affected populations. It is the responsibility of the controlling authorities to ensure that access is opened not only for humanitarian response but also for accurate, reliable, and representative assessment of the current humanitarian situation. In the meantime, given the high level of uncertainty regarding the drivers of famine, the FRC recommends very close monitoring of the assumptions used for the projections in this analysis and close attention to trends in outcomes, as these may shift quickly. The FRC strongly recommends the triggering of a re-analysis of the current status should the primary drivers or trends in outcomes change significantly, and no later than the end of September 2024.
The FRC encourages all stakeholders who use the IPC for high-level decision-making to understand that whether a Famine classification is confirmed or not does not in any manner change the fact that extreme human suffering is without a doubt currently ongoing in the Gaza Strip, and does not change the immediate humanitarian imperative to address this civilian suffering by enabling complete, safe, unhindered, and sustained humanitarian access into and throughout the Gaza Strip, including through ceasing hostilities. All actors should not wait until a Famine classification is made to act accordingly.
The situation in Gaza is catastrophic, there is a high and sustained risk of Famine across the whole Gaza Strip. It is important to note that the probable improvement in nutrition status noted in April and May should not allow room for complacency about a reduced risk of Famine in the coming weeks and months. If anything, the prolonged nature of the crisis means that the risk of Famine remains at least as high as at any time during the last 9 months.
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Document Type: Report
Document Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
Subject: Access and movement, Agriculture, Armed conflict, Food, Gaza Strip, Hunger, Living conditions, Refugees and displaced persons, malnutrition
Publication Date: 25/06/2024
URL source: https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_Famine_Review_Committee_Report_Gaza_June2024.pdf
