Ok.. so the chess board has basically been set up...
Major Holders of SPR now looks like this...
RMS - 17.94%
Tembo - 9.99%
1832 - 5.12%
Mystery buyer - 4.75%
Delphi - 2.3%
This is from June 30 2023.... (pretty useless at this point, but... if nothing else it shows that with NRW gone, Delphi almost gone, Tembo reducing), it... a prime time for RMS to move, which... it has.
My biggest concern at this point is how low ball an offer RMS are going to try and push for.
We know that Tembo is willing to sell above $1 (though I really struggle to think why they would accept anything less than a 30% premium from the average price RMS has now paid for its 17.94%). i.e. $0.91 x 30% = $1.18.
I am not at all excited but such a prospect, but, I am also not blind to how this may play out. I have no doubt that SL does not want to sell to RMS, not after discovering Never Never, having built his team from the ground up, having basically proven himself (and his team) to be arguably the best on the ground in W.A at the moment. I have already posted about the logic of SPR and RMS operating as a single unit, but I have also tried to show how RMS cupboard is bare, how SPR is... going to be their engine room of growth and profitability for the decade+ ahead, not... Mt Magnet.
The big question for me in the near term, is... can SPR discover another NN or Pepper, to either derail the T/O all together, or push RMS to offer far more...?
As RMS are clearly already prepared to pay right now for what SPR has currently.....
Let me be clear, I personally would only relinquish my holding to RMS at the above price through compulsory acquisition (text that has likely been typed on HC threads so many times... the mods are stir crazy, yet, when many of us HCers have such substantial holdings, the offer RMS is going to make, needs to be genuinely accretive to all stakeholders......
At a guess, RMS first offer will be a premium of at least 25%, with either full script, or... script and a small amount of cash.
RMS has 1,142,000,000 shares
SPR has 1,105,000,000 shares
So if I can be blunt, RMS offering a 2:1 script deal would be a 3% premium...
Basically.... I think even RMS knows they will need to offer SPR a 55/45 share of the merged entity. If they get it for less.... well... then MZ will have done incredibly well for current RMS shareholders.
Still no offer has been made of course and all the above is pure speculation.
Good luck to all holders.
(20min delay)