the min pres says net debt/ebitda ratio is 2.4 (pg 16)
I have massive issues with this calc. They say ebitda is calculated on rolling 12 month basis.
ebitda was $675m for Dec 23 hy. Obviously if you include a period from the previous fin year where lithium prices were substantially higher, the ratio is going to be much lower.
another issue is that sustaining capital is much higher than depreciation. It was $258m for hy Dec 2023 but sustaining inv for same period was $367m (pg 12)
also it should be ebitda less sustaining cap less interest less tax.
if you extrapolate Dec 2023 figures over FY (which is closer to the mark than using a period which is so out of whack with the current market) then you have
$675m less $367m less $126m (interest) less $71m (tax) = $111m for HY (or $222m for FY)
this gives you net debt ($3.5b) to adj profit of $222m which is ratio of 15
And if you are to recalculate it based on likely profit for June hy and the current net debt levels (look at cap ex spend for June 2024 hy in pres)
wow! If this is worth $54, then BHP should be $300…..
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