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Ann: West Arunta Project - Luni MRE, page-285

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  1. 2,016 Posts.
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    If you apply CMOCs metrics (10,000tpa) to WA1 we will still come in at 2.2b MC for such a small operation. CMOC ROI is 37% on their niobium, their grade is 1.3%.

    Ive used conservative recoveries and grades in the below table for WA1, But with only a 700ktpa plant. Also expect the ROI will be alot better for WA1 because of the higher grade.
    ParameterValue
    1Plant Size0.765 mtpa
    2Plant Availability 85%
    3Effective Plant Throughput650,250 tons
    4Feed Grade (Niobium) 2%
    5Recovery Rate50%
    6Niobium Content in Ore13,005 tons
    7Recoverable Niobium 6,502.5 tons
    8Ferroniobium Production (FeNb)10,004 tons
    9Sale Price per Ton $40,000
    10Annual Revenue$400,160,000
    11Net Profit with 37% ROI$148,059,200
    12NPV (5 years, 10% discount rate)$530,660,856.45
    13Market Capitalization (P/E = 10)$1,480,592,000

    Converted to AUD:
    AUD= $2,220,888,000 MC

    Example what CAPEX would be,

    Nolans Rare Earths Project (Arafura Resources

    Capacity: Approximately 650ktpa

    Estimated Construction Cost: Around $680 million AUD

    The government funding for Arufura is around $840million total

    I believe there will be a supply gap, CBMMs 150kpta is based on 100% availability? I posted a table somewhere, ill see if i can find it, But it had all the metals requiring niobium and their individual CAGR %. Tallying them all up came up to 174kt of niobium needed by 2030 (Thats not taking into account if Nb Batteries kick off). There was a 30-40k shortfall by 2030 if you based CBMMs 150kpta on 85% availability.

    Even if we only start off small, WA1 will be worth at least 1.5B to 2B.
    Last edited by Naydoe: 03/07/24
 
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