Ann: Outstanding Kangankunde Stage 1 Feasibility Study Results, page-252

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Kamikazebear

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03/07/24

09:31

Post #: 74580916
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Originally posted by growler1969: ↑

I've been waiting for this to drop sometime since it was brought to my attention in Far East Capital's weekly research letter.

Whenever I read a PFS/DFS, I always look for the information they are not providing.

In this case, LIN have given an EBITDA for NdPr at current prices of USD11m. But crucially, they haven't given an NPV/IRR. Now why would that be?

You can use the EBITDA figure as a proxy for operational cashflows to calculate NPV pre-tax. USD11m is at a 100% basis. LIN has 66% which can be increased to 100% with a USD10m payment.

There are therefore 2 cases for NPV8 at market prices:
66% ownership
USD11m*0.66 for years 1-45. For ease of calcs, I wouldn't worry about a ramp-up phase and ignore the construction period.
In Year 0, is USD40m CapEx (-40)

100% ownership.
USD11m for years 1-45.
In Year o, is USD40m CapEx + USD10m payment.

The pay-back period from production is also easy to work out using the EBITDA too.

I usual dismiss any PFS/DFS which either doesn't use current market prices or a discount to current market prices. Check out CHN Scoping Study as an example and what happened to the SP next.

When you calculate LIN NPV/IRR/Pay-back at current market prices, you will understand for yourself why this was not promoted as the base case.

And I watched the Warwick Grigor video. He holds LIN from converting 20m 0.02 oppies earned as a CR fee. In the video he says:
"... doesn't have to worry about whatever price the REE suite is selling for"

Do you think lenders would be a blasé as Grigor re: commodity prices? Me thinks not. But nothing like talking one's own book.

The broker data for the last 2 days could be interesting; I wonder how many retail investors bought the headline numbers and who sold?

All imo. DYOR

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Nothing substantial

waricks numbers you have are incorrrect mate

LIN Price at posting: 14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Outstanding Kangankunde Stage 1 Feasibility Study Results, page-252

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Ann: Outstanding Kangankunde Stage 1 Feasibility Study Results, page-252

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