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03/07/24
15:55
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I work on probability.
Queensland has a coast exposed to cyclone events measuring 2000km.
The damage from a Cat 5 is spread over 50kms.
A Cat 5 crosses the coast once in 25 years.
Therefore 50/2000 = a 2.5% chance of it passing over within 25 kms of my house.
And in any year there is a 2.5/25 or 0.1%.
I can live and sleep with that.
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