i've always said, supply is always harder to bring on line, and with the existing supply - demand inmbalance only held by secondary supplies, (russian nukes to fuel, and US stockpiles selling) it was a comodity that had to turn eventually.
Made the most oversold stocks, whose projects were marginal at spot prices, (market focussed on spot, not contract to its error.) meant that the reverse sentiment offered the greatest gains if you recognised it.
BMN was always going to be selling its Uranium at contract, the question now, as apposed to when the spot was at 42, is will the contract be no longer a very acceptable 60-70, but might 80/lb.
We were always onto a viable project. The market moved by spot errored. And those who recognised would have been a no brainer to buy more bmn at lows.
Plenty of uside remains, my calc shows 1.50 is about right price to peers for say $2/lb Ev/lb resource, as a developer.
Different math applies if you look at when we become a producer, you need to factor in any forward equity dillution/ or debt finance on capex funding, or how much the JV partner will contribute as an early offtake etc to fund assist, then look at earnings model then.
(keep in mind, that with our acreage, the Etango project, may be just one asset that we develope, and doesnt preclude any other stand alone projects.)
And then there's the old Merger and Aquasitions, what will a predator pay for BMN? Start the cheque book at 1 billion.
I'm really hoping we put the wind under paladins skirt with some exploration success on our tenament surrounding them.
And i'd be equally happy if Pallinghurst dome came back with results that put another large bullseye on our backs.
We'll have to wait a little while further for tenamnet renewals to see what Botswana offers.
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