AI will require over 17 bfc/d of natural gas-fired power globally, page-17

I think it’s unclear but it probably will have an impact. At the very least, the US domestic price should increase a fair bit. Transport costs for LNG probably mean that the Asian market will be less affected but not sure.

Asia LNG price is key for Beetaloo as it’s our most reliable market if (a) East Coast pipeline is not feasible until production scales and (b) intermittent demand for domestic gas becomes real as firming for renewables. LNG price needs to stay high enough and persistently so to incentivise NTLNG build-out. Reckon it will.

Overall, sentiment seems to be that there is a supply glut but I prefer the analysis above:

“Although most semiconductor fabs are located outside the United States, a strong push exists to relocate manufacturing domestically. Regardless of where the chip manufacturing is situated, it is clear that building out 150 GW of data centers will require a tremendous amount of energy, further tightening global energy markets.

In our view, US natural gas demand is set to grow at the fastest rate in history between now and 2030.

At the same time, dry gas production appears to have peaked. While analysts are hopeful that a rebound is forthcoming, we are not as optimistic. The shale gas revolution resulted in a dramatic increase in supply, but as we have argued, immense is not the same as infinite. More than half of reserve estimates have now been produced in every major shale basin, an event that has corresponded historically with falling production.

If our models are correct, and we believe they are, the most significant gas demand increase in history will occur just as production begins to falter.”