OFS Phase 1 Review and Phase 2 Forecast

There has been a lot said on these forums the past few weeks, as people get upset by a lack of (or perceived lack of) action. I’ve been saying for a long long time that we can’t announce financing and/offtake until EPA approval, and that is still true. If you think otherwise, you should probably sell up and stick to bluechips or ETFs. The messaging from the company is that they are still working on financing with both public and private lenders. NAIF, ARENA, banks etc. all still in the mix, and if Bushveld go down I would expect many parties wanting to sign up for offtake.

Phase 1 of the OFS states that processing will be in Tenindewa. Why? I’ve already stated local workforce assisting with a Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund (NAIF) loan, as this assists local economy in comparison with FIFO. NAIF have ~3b left of which about ~1b will be spent in WA.

Something else equally important is water. Australia is the world’s driest inhabited continent. WA is Australia’s 2nd driest state (behind SA). Troy pointed out to me a Money of Money podcast ~1 month ago where a geologist said that the hardest thing about mining is access to fresh water. Salinity is a rising problem in Australia. Ask yourself is there more freshwater in the farming community of Tenindewa (AVL owe a payment in shares in September to extend the land purchase option) or out on site? Water on site will be used for mining, there is a lower cost and significant derisking to processing closer to Geraldton.

The EPA application can be patched up post approval to include Yarrabubba. The EPA application already includes open pit mining (which is the easiest thing to get past the EPA, it’s processing that’s the hard part). No EPA application is required for processing in Tenindewa as the EPA already deemed the activities not dissimilar to agriculture which is allowed onsite.

My thoughts from here are that EPA gets ticked off in August, in parallel with updated mining plan and pit design. Financing and offtake in September and October. I hope financing can be approved whilst Yarrabubba is added to the EPA application (I will email the company about this addition tomorrow).

The company stated 2025 construction to Business News.

I expect the Diggers and Dealers Presentation to be the next big release of information. If you want me to add additional queries to my email post them below and I do so tomorrow.